Gotabaya’s Massive Win In Polls In Sri Lanka Will Lead To Authoritarianism
By Barun Das Gupta
When Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the presidential election in Sri Lanka exactly a year ago, those watching Sri Lankan politics were sure that his Sri Lanka Peoples Party (SLPP) would win the parliamentary elections also in August 2020. They have been proved correct. The elections were held last Wednesday (August 5). The SLPP swept the polls winning 145 out of 225 seats. Getting the support of five more MPs does not pose any problem. Judging by Gotabayas declared intentions, Sri Lanka is in for an authoritarian rule in which the President will wield far more power than he does now. There is both jubilation and trepidation among the people, depending on their attitude to democracy and individual freedom.
Gotabaya has vowed to amend the Constitution and concentrate more powers in his hands. These powers were taken away from the President during the rule of Maithripala Sirisena, who was Gotabayas predecessor. Now Gotabaya wants to revert to the old system. Sirisena had amended the constitution to ensure that no one can be president for more than two terms. He also revoked the immunity from prosecution enjoyed by the president. Even appointments made by the president were subject to parliamentary supervision.
Gotabaya is known as a strong man who liquidated the LTTE which was fighting for a Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka, with ruthless ferocity. After last years Easter Sunday terrorist attacks on some churches and hotels by a suspected Muslim organization, Gotabayas political stocks rose sharply. Close to 300 people were killed and some five hundred were injured in the serial terror attacks. Gotabaya was seen as a no-nonsense man who could provide security to the people and protect the country from violence and anarchy.
Gotabaya, like his brother and former president Mahinda, has a pro-Chinese inclination, though for the record he denies any pro-China tilt. The West is apprehensive that after the spectacular victory of his party, Gotabaya will take Sri Lanka more into the orbit of Chinese influence. Now that he has got the parliamentary majority, his policy towards India and China will be closely watched. Judging by the way Beijing is trying to woo Nepal, Myanmar etc and turn them against India, it is hardly likely that Sri Lanka will escape the attention of Xi Jinping.
China has strong economic interests in Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka is practically caught in Chinas debt trap. Chinas investment in Sri Lanka is estimated at $66 billion. Compared to this, Indian investment in Sri Lanka is a mere $140 million. Sri Lankas trade deficit with China stands at 4.4 per cent of its GDP and accounts for nearly 40 per cent of its total trade deficit .
The Sri Lankan press, in particular, is afraid that more curbs (some curbs were imposed on the excuse of Covid) will be imposed and reports unfavourable to the Government will be frowned upon. It is quite likely that if Gotabaya amends the constitution, then the amendments may impact the freedom of the press. Article 14(1)(a) of the Sri Lankan constitution guarantees the freedom of speech and expression including publication. This article may be amended and the freedom subjected to restrictions.
Sri Lankan economy is not in a good shape. According to a World Bank report, economic growth is estimated to have been a mere 2.3 per cent in 2019, an 18-year low. The impact of Covid pandemic on production and GDP is yet to be assessed. It will be interesting to see what steps Gotabaya takes to stimulate the economy. Will he try to make the country independent of the Chinese economic stranglehold?
In view of Chinas growing hostility toward India and the situation prevailing in eastern Ladakh, Sri Lankas post election position vis-à-vis China is of vital interest to India. The island nation is strategically located in the Indian Ocean. And the seaport of Hambantota at the tip of its southern end is now in Chinese control. The significance of this is obvious. If in future India and her allies ever decide to block the Malacca Straits, through which passes 80 per cent of Chinas oil imports, they may have to contend with the Chinese navy operating from the Hambantota port. Besides, Chinese submarines can take advantage of the Colombo port as they did a few years ago, raising Indias hackles.
New Delhi will, naturally, try to keep its relations with Sri Lanka on an even keel and do nothing to antagonize it and hope that Colombo will reciprocate and keep Indias interests in mind. But what the actual shape of things will be lies in the womb of the future. Under Gotabaya, China will definitely try to cement further its relations with Sri Lanka and try to edge out India, posing a diplomatic challenge to India. India will have to counter the China by pursuing a resilient diplomacy. (IPA Service)
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